每日投行/机构观点梳理（2026-01-13）

Group 1: Concerns about Federal Reserve Independence - UBS suggests that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to a more hawkish stance in monetary policy [1] - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to continue making data-driven decisions despite the pressure from the criminal investigation against Chairman Powell [1][2] - Rabobank indicates that increasing political pressure on the Federal Reserve could result in higher volatility for the dollar in 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Rabobank warns that the investigation into Powell could reignite "sell-America" trades, posing significant downside risks for the dollar [2] - ABN Amro suggests that the investigation may delay any potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as officials may adopt a more hawkish stance to defend the institution [2] - The Swiss franc has become a favored safe-haven currency amid concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts and Trends - State Street Global Advisors reports a greater than 30% probability that spot gold will exceed $5,000 per ounce this year, driven by geopolitical dynamics and Federal Reserve policies [2] - Fitch Ratings anticipates a moderate recovery of the Japanese yen from historical lows by 2026, despite ongoing challenges in the labor market [4] - Zhongjin Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by approximately 50 basis points in 2026 due to weak employment data [8]