大摩邢自强最新分享：2026香港楼价还会涨10%，人民币有望触及6.85，美降息可能推迟至6月与9月

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese economy may still be in a difficult exploration to break deflation in 2026, with weak domestic demand and low prices persisting [1][59][78] - The recent improvements in CPI and PPI are not sustainable and are characterized by a lack of strong domestic demand support, indicating that they do not signal a genuine break from deflation [1][58][77] - The RMB is expected to reach around 6.85 to 6.8 against the USD in the first quarter of 2026, but this is influenced by seasonal factors and may not indicate a long-term trend [1][56][67] Group 2 - The Hong Kong real estate market has seen a rise in both volume and price, which may provide a reference for mainland China's real estate policies [1][60][80] - In 2025, Hong Kong's housing volume increased by 18%, and prices are expected to rise by 10% in 2026, along with an increase in rental levels [1][81][82] - The easing of policies and declining mortgage rates in Hong Kong have significantly improved housing demand, which could serve as a model for mainland China to stabilize its real estate market [1][25][30] Group 3 - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $14 billion in 2025, reversing the outflow trend of 2024, and there is confidence in maintaining net inflows in 2026 [1][63][102] - The anticipated two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 have been postponed to June and September, but the market's reaction is expected to be moderate [1][62][96] - The overall sentiment in the capital market remains cautiously optimistic, despite some weaknesses in corporate earnings [1][54][101]