程实：银价震荡曲线揭示全球变局进行时

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent volatility in commodity prices, particularly silver, indicating that while some commodities have reached new price levels, the sustainability of these trends remains uncertain [1][10]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - Silver prices have shown significant fluctuations, with frequent changes in direction, suggesting that single factors are insufficient to explain price movements [1]. - The overall commodity market is experiencing a transitional state where old equilibria are loosening, and new equilibria have yet to stabilize [1][10]. - Since 2016, major commodity price indices have exhibited synchronized volatility, particularly around 2020 and 2022, indicating a high level of uncertainty across various commodities [2]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The restructuring of the global manufacturing system, driven by energy transition, digital expansion, and infrastructure updates, has led to resilient demand for certain industrial materials [2]. - Traditional investment and real estate-related demand are undergoing adjustments, resulting in structural differentiation in demand [2][6]. - The changes in the cost structure, particularly due to energy transition, have significantly impacted pricing logic across the commodity sector [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints, demand differentiation, and financial behaviors have contributed to the tendency for commodity prices to exhibit phase jumps [6]. - The correlation between inventory levels and price changes has shown instability, indicating that single supply-demand signals are insufficient to explain price movements [6][7]. - The demand for industrial metals is supported by emerging industries and infrastructure investments, while traditional manufacturing cycles have become more volatile [6]. Group 4: Financial Participation and Pricing - Increased financial participation has altered pricing mechanisms, particularly in actively traded industrial metals like copper, leading to more frequent price adjustments [7]. - The relationship between inventory and price has become unstable, reflecting the complexities introduced by simultaneous structural changes [7][14]. - Prices are now more sensitive to marginal changes due to supply-demand mismatches and heightened financial involvement, resulting in a tendency for prices to adjust in a jump-like manner [7]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Implications - The current state of commodity prices reflects broader macroeconomic conditions, where traditional growth models are losing effectiveness, and new technologies and policies are reshaping demand and cost structures [10][11]. - The high frequency of price adjustments indicates that the market is still calibrating its long-term structural judgments [10][14]. - The ongoing volatility in commodity prices serves as a lens through which to understand the increasing complexity and turmoil in the global economic landscape [11][14].