Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2026-01-13 12:30Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing a dilemma between the urgency to export before the VAT export tax rebate is canceled on April 1, 2026, and the rising costs of raw materials, which are causing hesitation in production decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Export Urgency and Raw Material Costs - Companies are under pressure to complete exports before the VAT export tax rebate is removed, leading to potential missed orders if not acted upon quickly [1]. - The rising prices of raw materials such as silver and aluminum are significantly impacting production budgets, causing companies to reconsider their production plans [1][2]. - The price of battery cells has increased by over 0.1 yuan per watt in the last two months, leading to a halt in procurement by many manufacturers [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Challenges - Companies with large inventories of components produced at lower costs are in a favorable position, while those with low inventories face challenges in sourcing high-cost battery cells for production [2][3]. - The domestic component prices are highly volatile, influenced by the rising costs of metals and the impending cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate [3]. Group 3: Market Uncertainty and Decision-Making - The uncertainty in overseas markets is making it difficult for manufacturers to decide on export strategies, compounded by financial constraints [3][4]. - Some traders are resorting to shipping products overseas for simple packaging to avoid high tariffs, raising questions about future stockpiling strategies [3]. Group 4: Impact on Market Dynamics - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate is expected to push companies towards technological innovation and improving product value to manage cost pressures [5]. - Companies with established overseas production capabilities, such as JinkoSolar, are likely to benefit from the policy changes, as they have mechanisms in place to adjust pricing in response to market fluctuations [5].