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Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price fluctuations driven by supply-demand dynamics, policy adjustments, and market expectations, with prices having doubled since October 2022 and showing a strong upward trend in early 2026 [1][4]. Price Trends - As of January 13, 2026, the main contract for lithium carbonate reached a peak of 170,000 yuan/ton before closing at 166,980 yuan/ton, marking a 7.44% increase [1]. - The price of lithium carbonate has increased from approximately 75,000 yuan/ton in October 2022 to over 166,000 yuan/ton in January 2026, representing a more than 100% increase [1]. - The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 124,350 yuan/ton on January 5, 2026, to 153,400 yuan/ton on January 12, 2026, a jump of 29,050 yuan/ton or 23.4% [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In early 2025, pre-Spring Festival stocking demand drove industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices to nearly 75,000 yuan/ton, but prices fell to around 58,000 yuan/ton by late June due to decreased demand and increased supply [2]. - The second half of 2025 saw a price recovery due to supply concerns from mining rights approvals and increased downstream demand, with prices peaking near 84,000 yuan/ton in August [3]. - From October 2025 onwards, strong downstream demand during the peak season led to a tightening supply-demand balance, pushing prices above 124,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year [4]. Policy Impact - The export tax rebate policy is influencing the market, with Chinese lithium battery companies beginning to export aggressively in anticipation of reduced rebates, which is expected to shift some overseas demand from 2027 to 2026 [4][6]. - The export tax rebate is set to decrease from 9% before April 1, 2026, to 0% after January 1, 2027, which will impact pricing and demand dynamics in the lithium carbonate market [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current price increase is a result of multiple factors, including resilient demand during the off-season, policy changes, and supply-side news affecting market sentiment [5]. - The market is expected to face volatility due to simultaneous influences from upstream maintenance and traditional seasonal demand drops in early 2026, with potential inventory adjustments [5]. - Long-term, the industry may shift from price competition to value competition, necessitating technological upgrades and product enhancements to maintain competitiveness [7].