财报季来袭，华尔街板块轮动交易迎大考

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in investor sentiment as funds move from technology stocks to sectors like banking, consumer goods, and materials, betting on their performance in a potentially accelerating U.S. economy in 2026 [1][4] - Large technology stocks are expected to drive profit growth in Q4, with a projected year-on-year earnings increase of 20% for tech companies in the S&P 500, while non-tech companies' earnings growth is expected to slow dramatically from 9% to just 1% [1][4] - The performance guidance from companies like Caterpillar, Procter & Gamble, and JPMorgan is deemed crucial for validating Wall Street's optimistic forecasts regarding economic growth, even if the U.S. economy does not achieve full-year expansion [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the profit growth for S&P 500 value stocks will be 9%, which is only one-third of the growth expected for growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, where earnings are anticipated to rise by 30% [2][5] - Supportive factors for market confidence include expected profit growth of 13% for industrial companies and around 12% for non-essential consumer goods and services, with healthcare, materials, and essential goods also nearing 10% growth [2][5] - The Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, declining oil prices, relaxed credit standards, and the "Good Jobs Act" are seen as potential benefits for cyclical sectors in the economy and stock market [2][5] Group 3 - Investors are actively participating in the sector rotation, with Deutsche Bank reporting a decrease in holdings of large-cap growth and tech stocks, while small-cap stock holdings have reached their highest level in nearly a year [3][6] - Recent fund flows indicate a clear trend of sector rotation, with nearly $900 million flowing out of the tech sector while materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors attracted a combined inflow of $8.3 billion [3][6] - The upcoming earnings season is viewed as a critical test for 493 non-tech stocks in the S&P 500 and small-cap stocks, as market expectations for their earnings have been set quite high [3][6]