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Core Viewpoint - The latest U.S. inflation data strengthens traders' expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June [1][8] Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December increased by 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from November [1][8] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, also consistent with November [2][9] - On a month-on-month basis, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3%, aligning with economists' expectations, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, below the anticipated 0.3% [2][9] Price Trends - Significant price increases were noted in household expenditure categories such as groceries, dining out, housing costs, transportation services, and healthcare in December [2][9] - Conversely, gasoline prices and prices for used cars and trucks saw a decline [2][9] Market Expectations - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting, with some officials expressing concerns about tariffs potentially sustaining price pressures [10] - Following the inflation data release, traders increased bets that the Fed might cut rates before Chairman Powell's term ends in May, with a 42% probability for an April cut, up from 38% prior to the data [3][10] Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices experienced a pre-market surge, although gains were slightly reduced afterward [4][10] - Precious metals prices, particularly silver, have risen significantly, with spot silver reaching $88 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 23% [6][12] Federal Reserve's Stance - According to Nick Timiraos, a Fed spokesperson, the December CPI is unlikely to alter the Fed's current wait-and-see approach, as officials prefer to see more evidence of stable and declining inflation before considering rate cuts [7][13] - The Fed has lowered the benchmark interest rate in its last three meetings, with the most recent cut occurring in December, driven by concerns over potential labor market slowdowns [13]