United Airlines to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

Core Viewpoint - United Airlines (UAL) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 20, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates showing a decline compared to the previous year, while revenues are projected to increase slightly [1][11]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UAL's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has decreased by 7.6% over the past 60 days to $3.05 per share, indicating a 6.4% decline from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals [1][11]. - Revenue estimates for the same quarter are set at $15.44 billion, reflecting a 5.04% increase from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals [1][11]. Historical Performance - UAL has a positive earnings surprise history, having exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average beat of 8.8% [2]. Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - The anticipated performance boost for UAL in the upcoming quarter is attributed to an increase in total revenues, primarily driven by high passenger revenues as domestic air travel demand stabilizes [3]. - Upbeat passenger volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday period are expected to contribute positively to the top-line performance, with passenger revenues estimated to rise by 5.5% from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals [4]. Challenges Facing UAL - Geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation are likely to negatively impact UAL's operations, potentially causing volatility in passenger traffic and limiting the airline's ability to maintain strong yields and consistent revenue growth [5]. Earnings Prediction Model - Current models do not predict an earnings beat for UAL, as the company has an Earnings ESP of -3.56% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6][7].