Earnings Season to Put Wall Street’s Rotation Trade to the Test

Group 1 - Investors are shifting focus from technology giants to banks, consumer-product makers, and materials producers, betting on their outperformance as the US economy accelerates in 2026 [1] - Big Tech is still expected to dominate fourth-quarter profit growth among S&P 500 firms, with estimated year-over-year earnings growth of 20%, while non-tech earnings are projected to decelerate from 9% to just 1% [2] - Companies like Caterpillar Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co. are under pressure to confirm optimistic economic forecasts, as investors anticipate a significant economic boost in the first half of the year [3] Group 2 - Guidance from corporate leaders will be crucial, with expectations for broad stimulus tailwinds to support sustainable earnings growth [4] - Small caps and value stocks are currently favored, indicating investor confidence in the US economy, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 Index outperforming the S&P 500 for seven consecutive days [4] - Analysts forecast that the S&P 500 Value cohort will see profit growth of 9%, significantly lower than the 30% profit expansion expected for tech stocks [5] Group 3 - Industrial firms in the S&P 500 are projected to increase profits by 13%, while discretionary consumer products and services companies are expected to grow by 12% [6] - Health care, materials, and consumer staples firms are also anticipated to deliver gains nearing 10% [6]