Analysts Estimate Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Core Viewpoint - Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended December 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating a significant impact on its near-term stock price based on actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.49 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 3.9%, while revenues are projected to be $1.43 billion, representing a 0.8% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.93% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Interactive Brokers is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -8.16%, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12]. - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, the company holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting that while the odds of beating the consensus EPS estimate are low, the stock may still be worth monitoring [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Interactive Brokers exceeded the expected earnings of $0.50 per share by delivering $0.57, resulting in a positive surprise of 14.00% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates three times, indicating a history of strong performance [14]. Industry Comparison - The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC), a competitor in the financial investment banking sector, is expected to report earnings of $4.23 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12.2%, with revenues projected at $5.96 billion, up 7.1% [18][19]. - PNC's consensus EPS estimate has been revised up by 0.9% in the last 30 days, and it currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.28%, indicating a higher likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [19][20].