Earnings Preview: United Airlines (UAL) Q4 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in United Airlines' earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - United Airlines is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 8.6%, while revenues are projected to reach $15.38 billion, an increase of 4.7% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.77% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for United is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.75%, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [12]. Historical Performance - United Airlines has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +5.30% in the most recent quarter [13][14]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, other factors may influence stock performance, and the current combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 complicates predictions for the upcoming earnings report [10][12][17].