出口退税“退坡”激发碳酸锂需求释放

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and policy adjustments, particularly in response to the upcoming phased reduction of export tax rebates for battery products [1][3]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 has seen significant price increases, breaking through key thresholds of 150,000 CNY/ton, 160,000 CNY/ton, and 170,000 CNY/ton, with a closing price of 156,100 CNY/ton on January 12, 2026, and 166,900 CNY/ton on January 13, 2026, marking a cumulative increase of 37.25% since the end of 2025 [1][2]. - The spot market also reflects strong performance, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices reaching 153,400 CNY/ton and 163,900 CNY/ton on January 12 and 13, 2026, respectively, indicating increases of 9.89% and 6.81% [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rebound in lithium prices since the second half of 2025 is attributed to increased downstream demand and improved supply-demand relationships, with supply disruptions and rapid demand release being key factors [3]. - The adjustment of export tax rebates for battery products is expected to accelerate the "rush to export" behavior among battery manufacturers, leading to a concentrated release of short-term demand for lithium carbonate [3][4]. Industry Response - The lithium battery supply chain has begun to proactively adjust to the anticipated changes in export tax policy, with downstream battery manufacturers accelerating production schedules and requiring prompt supply from cathode material producers [4]. - The production capacity utilization rate is expected to remain high in the first quarter of 2026 due to the "rush to export" phenomenon, contrasting with typical seasonal declines [4]. Strategic Adjustments - Some cathode material producers are negotiating pricing mechanisms with downstream clients to mitigate cost pressures, with strategies including direct supply of lithium carbonate by clients and linking settlement prices to futures prices [6][7]. - The anticipated tightening of lithium carbonate inventory due to proactive replenishment by downstream industries is expected to support prices in the short term [7]. Long-term Outlook - The gradual reduction of export tax rebates is projected to indirectly increase the overall export costs of battery cells, potentially leading to an earlier release of some overseas demand into 2026 [6][7]. - The industry is expected to shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological upgrades and product performance improvements to enhance core competitiveness [7].