Higher NII & Loan Growth to Aid MTB's Q4 Earnings, High Costs to Hurt

Core Viewpoint - M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is expected to report year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings for Q4 and full-year 2025 results on January 16, 2026 [1][10] Financial Performance Expectations - The company anticipates average loan and lease balances to be between $137 billion and $138 billion in Q4 2025, up from $136.5 billion in Q3 2025 [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is $192.3 billion, indicating a nearly 1% increase from the previous quarter [4] - Net interest income (NII) is expected to be approximately $1.8 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a 2.2% increase from the prior quarter [6] - The consensus estimate for total revenues is pegged at $2.46 billion, implying a rise of 3.3% from the year-ago level [15] Income Sources - Fee income from service charges on deposit accounts is expected to rise, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $148.1 million, indicating a 5.1% increase from the prior quarter [7] - Mortgage banking revenues are estimated at $149.8 million, reflecting a 1.9% rise from the previous quarter, supported by lower mortgage rates [9] - Non-interest income is projected to be between $670 million and $690 million, down from $752 million in Q3 2025, with a consensus estimate of $679.2 million indicating a 9.7% decline [11] Expense and Asset Quality Outlook - GAAP expenses are expected to be in the range of $1.35 billion to $1.37 billion in Q4 2025, compared to $1.36 billion in the prior quarter [12] - The net charge-off (NCO) rate is projected to be between 40 and 50 basis points, slightly lower than the 42 basis points reported in Q3 2025 [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets (NPAs) is $1.51 billion, indicating a sequential decline of 2.3% [13] 2025 Projections - For 2025, M&T Bank expects NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) to be in the range of $7.05 billion to $7.15 billion, with a net interest margin projected in the mid to high 3.60% range [16] - Non-interest income is anticipated to be between $2.5 billion and $2.6 billion, while expenses are expected to be in the range of $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion [16] - Average loan and lease balances are projected to be between $135 billion and $137 billion, with average total deposit balances expected at $162 billion to $164 billion [17]