热轧板卷季度分析：4季度难改颓势，新年一季度有望打破下跌梦魇

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled coil market is experiencing a stepwise decline in prices during Q4 2025, with a narrowing price fluctuation range and a downward shift in average prices due to high supply, low demand, and increasing inventory levels [3][13]. Price Trends - The highest price in Q4 was recorded at 3379.09 CNY/ton in early October, while the lowest was 3262.05 CNY/ton by the end of December, resulting in a quarterly average of 3299.31 CNY/ton, which is a 3.13% decrease compared to Q3 [3][13]. Production Levels - In October 2025, the monthly production of hot-rolled coils reached a historical high of 29.4362 million tons, marking the first time it surpassed 29 million tons in a single month. The total production for Q4 was 86.7394 million tons, reflecting a 2.12% increase from Q3 [5][15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The transaction volume for hot-rolled coils in Q4 was 1.6675 million tons, a 17.47% decrease from the 2.0204 million tons in Q3, indicating a weak demand environment amidst increasing supply [7][17]. Inventory Trends - By the end of 2025, social inventory of hot-rolled coils stood at 3.0991 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.75%. The high inventory levels have contributed to a downward pressure on prices as traders focus on reducing stock through price cuts [9][19]. Macro Economic Factors - Positive macroeconomic signals have emerged, with the IMF projecting China's GDP growth at 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, which has improved market expectations and provided some buffer against price declines [11][22]. Future Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a price trend of initially declining followed by a potential increase, with January likely experiencing further price drops due to seasonal factors and reduced demand, while February and March may see stabilization and subsequent price recovery as demand improves [12][22][23].