【环球财经】1月澳大利亚消费者悲观情绪加剧

Core Viewpoint - The Westpac Bank and Melbourne Institute report indicates a decline in consumer confidence in Australia, with the consumer sentiment index dropping 1.7% to 92.9 points in January 2026, reflecting a pessimistic outlook among consumers [1]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer sentiment index for January 2026 has decreased by 1.7% to 92.9 points, indicating ongoing pessimism [1]. - The decline in consumer confidence is primarily driven by concerns over household financial situations and the overall economic outlook for 2026 [1]. - Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect mortgage rates to rise in the next 12 months, a significant increase from the previous year [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The index measuring expectations for the economy over the next year fell by 6.5% to 88.4 points, while the five-year outlook increased by 0.9% to 96.5 points [1]. - The index for assessing household financial conditions over the next year decreased by 4.5% to 97.8 points, while the index reflecting changes in household finances over the past year rose by 2.3% to 82.7 points [2]. - The index for purchasing major household items increased by 0.2% to 99.1 points [2]. Group 3: Housing and Employment Expectations - The housing market index rose by 4% to 89.6 points, indicating a more favorable view on purchasing homes [2]. - The unemployment expectations index increased by 2.1% to 129.4 points, suggesting growing concerns about job security [2]. - The housing price expectations index decreased by 1.4% to 167.5 points, while the interest rate expectations index rose by 5% to 152.8 points [2]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during its upcoming monetary policy meeting in early February 2026, despite strong inflation data and recovering household spending [2]. - The RBA is sensitive to inflation risks and is prepared to raise rates if necessary, but current economic conditions suggest inflation may return to the target range of 2-3% within 2026 [2]. Group 5: Additional Consumer Confidence Insights - The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose by 3 points to 84.5 points during the week of January 5-11, although the four-week moving average slightly declined [3]. - The weekly inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, indicating a slight easing in inflation expectations [3]. - The rebound in consumer confidence observed in January is noted to be the weakest in the past 15 years [3].