存储涨价趋势持续多家上市公司宣布扩产计划

Core Insights - The demand for AI computing power has led to a significant increase in storage chip prices, with expectations for continued price hikes in the first and second quarters of this year [1][2] - Major domestic storage chip companies are expanding production capacity and increasing R&D investments to meet the rising demand [1][3] Price Trends - According to Counterpoint Research, storage market prices have surpassed the historical peak of 2018, with suppliers' bargaining power at an all-time high. Prices are expected to rise by 40% to 50% by Q1 2026 and by an additional 20% in Q2 2026 [1] - The price of a 256G DDR5 server memory module has exceeded 40,000 yuan, and the price of Samsung's 16G DDR5 memory module has increased from over 380 yuan in September 2025 to 1,399 yuan by the time of reporting [1] AI Demand Impact - The surge in storage chip prices is primarily driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, with over 15% of the global population using AI, leading to a substantial increase in computing and model training needs [2] - Major memory suppliers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, have announced that their storage chip products for AI servers are sold out for 2026, limiting supply for consumer electronics [2] Capacity Expansion - Storage manufacturers have begun increasing capital expenditures to enhance production capacity through new facilities and equipment upgrades, but this process will take time, with supply expected to ease by the second half of 2027 [3] - Domestic manufacturers are actively expanding capacity and investing in high-end storage technology R&D, which may lead to an increase in market share [3] Company Developments - Several listed companies have announced plans for R&D and capacity expansion, including Tianshan Electronics, which is vertically integrating its storage chip development and manufacturing processes [4] - Changdian Technology has reported improvements in its factory operations and is focusing on new product technology iterations and capacity expansion [4] - Tongfu Microelectronics plans to raise up to 4.4 billion yuan for projects, including 800 million yuan for enhancing storage chip testing capacity [4] Market Activity - The listing of domestic storage chip leaders is gaining market attention, with Zhaoyi Innovation recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Changxin Technology submitting its prospectus to the Shanghai Stock Exchange [5] - Changxin Technology plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan, with significant allocations for upgrading manufacturing lines and R&D for DRAM technology [5] Price Forecast - Market demand and consumer psychology will also influence storage prices, with expectations that the price increases for DRAM and NAND may converge by Q2 2026, with potential stabilization in the second half of 2026 [6]