追求成长但不为高溢价“买单”

Core Insights - The current market perception equates "investing in technology" with "buying AI," with popular sectors like optical modules seen as entry points into the AI trend [1] - Zhang Jiansheng, a fund manager at Baodao Fund, adopts a unique investment style that focuses on early-stage opportunities rather than chasing hot stocks, achieving significant returns [1][2] - His fund, Baodao Shengyan A, reported over 45% annual returns in 2025 and a cumulative return of over 65% in three years, showcasing strong mid-to-long-term performance [1] Investment Strategy - Zhang's investment framework emphasizes a "bottom-up" approach, moderate industry diversification, and a balanced growth focus, with a strong emphasis on valuation and drawdown control [2][3] - He maintains a cautious risk preference shaped by his early career experiences during market volatility, leading to a left-side trading characteristic where he buys and sells based on predetermined market cap targets [1][2] Stock Selection Criteria - Zhang's stock selection is guided by three main dimensions: competitive barriers, industry prosperity, and valuation, with a particular focus on avoiding high premium valuations in the TMT sector [2] - He prefers to invest in lesser-known stocks with lower valuations and moderate market attention, allowing for a more controlled downside risk [2][4] Portfolio Construction - The portfolio is diversified across high-end manufacturing, TMT, and consumer sectors, with no single industry exceeding 25% of holdings, resulting in better drawdown control compared to peers [3] - Zhang's strategy includes a tiered approach to portfolio construction, where some positions are taken on the left side while waiting for clearer signals on the right side [4] Market Outlook for 2026 - Zhang holds an optimistic view on the A-share market, supported by three key factors: a significant decrease in risk premiums, ongoing regulatory support for capital markets, and signs of corporate earnings recovery [5] - Investment focus areas for 2026 include AI, particularly in storage and connectivity sectors, as well as traditional industries like chemicals and consumer sectors where valuation recovery opportunities exist [5][6]