贵金属价格上涨能否持续

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - In 2025, gold prices exhibited a clear upward trend, reaching over $3000 per ounce in Q1 and surpassing $3500 in Q2, with an annual increase of approximately 64% [2] - Silver prices rose significantly, starting from around $29 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $84 by year-end, resulting in an annual increase exceeding 140% [2] - Platinum prices experienced a dramatic rebound after a slow start, with an annual increase of about 117% driven by demand recovery and supply concerns [3] Group 2: Macro Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Precious metals prices were supported by a nearly 10% decline in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions, which contributed to rising prices throughout 2025 [4] - The expectation of a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks heightened demand for precious metals, providing new momentum for the market at the end of 2025 [4] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Strategic Diversification - Central banks were a dominant force in the gold market, with purchases expected to reach between 900 to 1000 tons in 2025, reflecting a strategic move to diversify reserves and reduce exposure to the US dollar [5] - The increasing focus on gold as a "no-counterparty risk" reserve asset highlights its growing importance among various countries, particularly in Eastern Europe and developing nations [5] Group 4: Silver's Dual Role and Demand Dynamics - Silver's price surge was supported by its dual role as both a monetary metal and an industrial raw material, with significant demand driven by green energy transitions and AI investments [6] - The global silver market faced a notable supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with a shortfall estimated between 100 million to 118 million ounces [6] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Major financial institutions predict that the gold market will continue its structural bull market, with prices expected to remain above current levels due to ongoing central bank purchases and increased safe-haven demand [8] - Predictions for platinum suggest a similar bullish trend, supported by supply shortages and demand from the automotive and hydrogen sectors [8] - The outlook for silver is more cautious, with concerns about increased volatility and potential downward risks despite positive industrial demand and monetary hedging [8]