触摸更加积极财政政策的温度

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy is expected to demonstrate strong resilience and vitality, driven by more proactive macroeconomic policies, including a shift to a more aggressive fiscal policy and a moderate easing of monetary policy [1][2]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy in 2025 is characterized as "more proactive," aimed at addressing various challenges while enhancing long-term development momentum and promoting high-quality economic growth [2]. - The deficit ratio is set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, marking the highest levels in recent years [2]. - The increase in the deficit ratio and scale indicates an expansion of fiscal spending to boost consumption and investment, thereby increasing overall social demand and driving economic growth [2][3]. Government Bonds and Investment - A larger scale of government bonds is planned, including 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds to support key areas and projects [3]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan aims to support major projects and enhance the capacity to serve the real economy [3]. - Central government transfers to local governments are set at 10.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4%, focusing on enhancing local financial capabilities [3]. Consumer Support and Demand Expansion - The 2025 fiscal policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand, with direct consumer subsidies and initiatives to promote consumption [5][7]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy program for consumer goods, including home appliances and mobile phones, is expected to significantly boost sales, with over 2.2 billion items sold and sales exceeding 700 billion yuan [7][8]. - The introduction of personal consumption loan interest subsidies aims to lower costs for consumers and stimulate demand [8]. Investment in Human Capital - The 2025 government report highlights a focus on investing in people, with significant cash subsidies for childcare and education aimed at reducing family burdens [10][11]. - A nationwide subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year for children under three marks a significant investment in social welfare [11]. - Employment policies are prioritized, with measures to reduce unemployment insurance rates and expand support for job creation [12]. Reform and Efficiency - Fiscal and tax reforms are ongoing, with zero-based budgeting being a key focus to enhance the efficiency of budget allocations [14]. - The implementation of a national asset sharing platform aims to optimize the use of government assets and improve resource allocation [15]. - Tax reforms, including the introduction of a new VAT law and green tax initiatives, are designed to support sustainable economic development [16]. Risk Management - Measures to manage local government debt are in place, with a focus on increasing transparency and reducing repayment pressures, allowing for more funds to be directed towards economic development and social welfare [17].