联合国贸发会议报告称——全球经济可能面临长期低增长风险

Global Economic Outlook - The UNCTAD report predicts a global economic growth of 2.7% in 2026, slightly lower than the 2.8% forecast for 2025, despite the significant tariff increases in the US in 2025 [1] - Global inflation is expected to decrease to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, but the cost of living remains high, particularly affecting low-income groups [1] Global Trade Dynamics - Global trade growth is projected to slow down to 2.2% in 2026 from 3.8% in 2025, influenced by the diminishing "front-loading" effect of tariffs [2] - Despite the overall slowdown, sectors like tourism and digital services are experiencing strong growth [2] Investment and Financial Environment - Global investment activity remains low due to geopolitical and policy uncertainties, with AI-related investments being a notable exception [2] - Financial markets are active, but there are concerns about asset bubbles, particularly in tech stocks [2] Labor Market Trends - The global unemployment rate is stable at around 5% in 2025, but youth and female employment issues are significant, with 257 million youth being "neither in employment, education, nor training" [2] - Women's labor participation rates are still significantly lower than men's, and barriers to employment for disabled individuals persist [2] Artificial Intelligence and Economic Impact - AI is expected to enhance productivity in the long term, but disparities in technological capabilities and investment will lead to uneven benefits across countries [3] - The potential for AI to disrupt job structures, particularly for mid- to high-skill positions, is a concern [3] Sustainable Development Goals - Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals is severely lagging, with extreme poverty only slightly decreasing and primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa [3] - Climate disasters are exacerbating food prices and increasing fiscal burdens, with weak income growth in developing countries [3] Regional Economic Disparities - Economic growth disparities are expected to widen, with developed economies maintaining moderate growth while emerging economies face increasing fragmentation [4] - The GDP growth forecast for the US is about 2.0% in 2026, while the least developed countries are projected to grow at approximately 4.6%, below the 7% target for sustainable development [4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Constraints - Global monetary policy is anticipated to shift towards easing in 2026, but the scope for such policies is limited, especially in developing countries facing greater fiscal pressures [4] - Development aid is expected to decline, potentially reverting to 2020 levels, further constraining social spending and infrastructure investment [4] Importance of Multilateral Cooperation - The report emphasizes the necessity of multilateral cooperation to address global challenges in a fragmented world, focusing on inclusive and sustainable development [5] - Key multilateral initiatives highlighted include the Sevilla Commitment for global development financing, the Doha Political Declaration focusing on human development, and the Belen Plan for climate change [5]