真惊了！API数据显示美国石油库存呈现大幅累库，油价仍强势连续四天大涨

Core Viewpoint - The oil market continues to rise despite geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, with WTI crude surpassing $60 and Brent crude exceeding $65, driven by concerns over potential military actions and U.S. sanctions [4][6][20] Market Performance - WTI crude oil futures closed at $61.15, up $1.65 (2.77%), while Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.47, up $1.60 (2.51%) [7][21] - The Chinese SC crude oil futures rose by 2.90% to 450.40 yuan [3][21] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has ordered citizens to evacuate Iran, and France has withdrawn non-essential embassy staff, raising fears of military escalation [4][6] - The geopolitical risk premium is more pronounced in the global benchmark (Brent) compared to the Middle Eastern physical market, with Brent's premium over Dubai crude reaching its highest level since July [4][9][18] EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook - The EIA's report indicates that U.S. crude oil production is expected to decline after reaching a record of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, with a slight decrease of less than 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 [6][22] - WTI prices are forecasted to average $52.21 per barrel in 2026 and $50.36 in 2027, reflecting a downward trend due to oversupply [6][20][22] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - API reported a significant increase in crude oil inventories by 5.278 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a decrease, indicating a supply surplus [6][20] - Global liquid fuel production is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, driven by OPEC+ production growth [22][24] Regional Price Disparities - The price of Dubai crude has weakened while Oman and Murban crude prices have strengthened, indicating widening price differentials within the region [9][23] - Major traders are actively engaging in spot market transactions, with prices concentrated between $61.70 and $61.84 per barrel, reflecting a vibrant trading environment [9][23] Future Considerations - Close monitoring of Iran's floating oil inventory and Venezuela's actual export flows will be crucial for understanding price dynamics between hemispheres [9][24] - The market is characterized by high volatility and uncertainty, with recommendations to manage risk effectively while identifying potential opportunities [6][20]