【沥青日报】华东重交沥青高低端价维稳，短期跟随成本端地缘演绎

Market Performance - The main contract BU 2603 opened high and maintained fluctuations, closing at 3140, down 0.66% from the previous settlement price, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 3.9% [31][32] - The next month contract 2606 decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous settlement price, with the near-month contract showing a larger decline than the far-month contract [31] Spot Market - The market price for Shandong heavy asphalt is 3080 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 4.4%. The Shandong basis is -60 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 12 CNY/ton [31][32] - The market price for East China heavy asphalt is 3200 CNY/ton, also unchanged. The East China basis is +60 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative decrease of 8 CNY/ton [31] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -144 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative decrease of 15 CNY/ton. The main BU contract closed down 0.5%, while Brent decreased by 0.1% [31][32] - The geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have led to stronger oil price increases compared to asphalt, indicating a risk point for the multi-crack spread [31] Fundamental Changes - According to Longzhong's spot price statistics, the reference price for Shandong independent refineries is between 3010-3140 CNY/ton, with the main reference price at 3220-3240 CNY/ton, and the market benchmark price at 3080 CNY/ton [32] - The tightening of available spot resources is noted, with East China heavy asphalt prices remaining stable [32] - Refineries are expected to gradually increase asphalt production due to acceptable profit margins, which may squeeze profit margins and require more raw materials [32][33] Short-term Outlook - The near-month contract is expected to focus on geopolitical premiums [33] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a fluctuating approach, focusing on near-month contracts while buying low on far-month contracts, with a temporary observation on the crack spread [34]