Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-13 23:46Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment highlights the relationship between the overall society's ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) and long-term interest rates, establishing a 2:1 ratio that is supported by market arbitrage and is globally applicable as a long-term interest rate analysis framework [1] Group 1: ROIC Analysis Framework - The overall society's ROIC is calculated using an "industry-weighted method," which considers the financial data of listed companies to compute the ROIC for each industry [1] - Due to the inconsistency between the industry structure of listed companies and the macroeconomic industry structure in China, the report estimates the capital scale of each industry based on monthly fixed asset investment data published by the National Bureau of Statistics [1] - The final overall society's ROIC is obtained by weighting the ROIC of each industry according to their respective capital scales [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is expected that the capital return level in China will bottom out and rise, which will subsequently pull up the long-term interest rate center [1] - Despite the anticipated decline in actual economic growth rates during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the capital return level is projected to rise, driven by the manufacturing and real estate sectors [1]