全球经济可能面临长期低增长风险

Global Economic Outlook - The UNCTAD report predicts a global economic growth of 2.7% in 2026, slightly lower than the 2.8% forecast for 2025, despite the significant tariff increases in the US in 2025 [1] - Global inflation is expected to decrease to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, but the cost of living pressures remain high, particularly affecting low-income groups [1] Global Trade Dynamics - Global trade growth is projected to slow down to 2.2% in 2026 from 3.8% in 2025, influenced by the diminishing "front-loading" effect of tariffs [2] - Despite the overall slowdown, sectors like tourism and digital services are experiencing strong growth [2] Investment and Financial Environment - Global investment activity remains subdued due to geopolitical and policy uncertainties, with AI-related investments being a notable exception [2] - Financial markets are active, but there are concerns about asset bubbles, particularly in tech stocks [2] Labor Market Trends - The global unemployment rate is stable at around 5% in 2025, but youth and female employment issues are significant, with approximately 257 million youth being "neither in employment, education, nor training" [2] - Women's labor participation rates are still significantly lower than men's, and barriers to employment for disabled individuals persist [2] Artificial Intelligence and Economic Disparities - AI has the potential to enhance productivity, but disparities in technological capabilities and investment exist among countries, leading to uneven benefits [3] - The impact of AI on employment structures may be significant, particularly for mid- to high-skill jobs [3] Sustainable Development Challenges - The report highlights severe setbacks in achieving sustainable development goals, with extreme poverty only slightly declining and primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa [3] - Climate disasters are exacerbating food prices and increasing fiscal burdens, with weak income growth in developing countries [3] Regional Economic Disparities - Economic growth disparities are expected to widen, with developed economies showing moderate growth while emerging economies face increasing fragmentation [5] - The GDP growth forecast for the US is about 2.0% in 2026, while the least developed countries are projected to grow at approximately 4.6%, below the sustainable development target of 7% [5] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Constraints - Global monetary policy is anticipated to shift towards easing in 2026, but the scope for such policies is limited, especially in developing countries facing significant fiscal pressures [5] - Approximately two-thirds of central banks are entering a rate-cutting cycle, yet policy rates remain above pre-pandemic levels [5] Importance of Multilateral Cooperation - The report emphasizes the necessity of multilateral cooperation to address global challenges in a fragmented world, focusing on inclusive and sustainable development [6] - Key multilateral initiatives include the Sevilla Commitment for global development financing, the Doha Political Declaration focusing on human development, and the Belen Plan for climate change [6]