美联储独立性再入市场定价视野，“抛售美国”逻辑是否回归

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are emerging as a new uncertainty factor that could impact the risk premium of U.S. dollar assets in the long term [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold futures on COMEX reached a historical high of $4,640 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop in about three weeks, indicating a strong safe-haven buying interest in precious metals [2]. - The current market response is relatively restrained, reflected in a slight steepening of the yield curve and a weaker dollar, suggesting a marginal repricing of risk premiums related to institutional uncertainty rather than a substantial reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - If the debate over the Federal Reserve's independence continues, it may elevate the risk compensation required for U.S. assets in the medium to long term, providing a rationale for global investors to diversify away from dollar and U.S. Treasury allocations [3]. - Investment professionals believe that the limited volatility in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries indicates that investors do not view the current events as a direct threat to monetary policy but rather as a potential institutional risk that has yet to materialize [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - The discussion of "selling America" resurfaced, reminiscent of the market volatility triggered by tariffs last year, where major U.S. stock indices saw significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping approximately 4.8% in a single day [4]. - Even if U.S. assets face higher risk premium demands, it is suggested that capital may not exit rapidly but rather undergo gradual adjustments in allocation structures [4][5]. Group 4: Broader Economic Factors - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence are providing investors with another reason to diversify away from dollar assets, despite ongoing support for U.S. assets from factors such as economic resilience, easing inflation pressures, and momentum from AI-related capital investments [5]. - Fitch Ratings emphasized that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a crucial factor supporting its AA+ sovereign credit rating for the U.S. [5].