铜：中场休息

Core Viewpoint - The logic supporting copper price increases has not significantly changed, and after the adjustment, there is still potential for a rebound. The first quarter is typically a slow season, and without new drivers, prices may fluctuate before the Spring Festival. Post-holiday, with resumption of work and tight spot supply, copper prices may rise again. The short-term price range is expected to be 94,000 to 120,000 CNY/ton for Shanghai copper and 12,000 to 15,000 USD/ton for London copper. The strategy remains to buy on dips [3][17][26]. Focus Point 1: US-LME Price Spread - The recent convergence of the US-LME price spread is primarily due to delayed or canceled expectations regarding US copper tariffs, influenced by the postponement of timber tariff increases and the upcoming results of the silver 232 investigation, which may exempt silver tariffs and similarly affect copper tariffs. Additionally, US copper imports concentrated at the end of December, with current COMEX inventories reaching 500,000 tons. Future tariff expectations may still fluctuate [6][20]. Focus Point 2: Ongoing Supply Disruptions - Recent disruptions at mining sites have intensified expectations of tight raw material supply. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile experienced a strike in early January, halting production of approximately 74,000 tons, with a potential monthly impact of 6,000 tons if the strike continues. Furthermore, the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has delayed its second phase due to political changes, affecting the signing of mining contracts, with the timeline for production now uncertain. This mine was initially expected to contribute an additional 90,000 tons this year [8][22][24]. Focus Point 3: High Prices Suppressing Downstream Consumption - High copper prices are significantly suppressing consumption, with the operating rate of refined copper rods dropping from an average of 64% in December to 48%, resulting in a weekly sample production decrease of nearly 20,000 tons. Domestic social inventories accumulated nearly 80,000 tons in December, with an additional 54,000 tons accumulated in January so far, as some downstream sectors prepare to enter the Spring Festival holiday early, leading to weak consumption. This weakness in demand is limiting the upward price momentum, and downstream sectors require time to accept current prices [10][11][25]. Summary of Macro and Supply-Demand Dynamics - On the macro level, recent US economic data shows mixed PMI results, with manufacturing weakening and services slightly strengthening. Non-farm employment numbers have decreased, but the unemployment rate and wage growth have exceeded expectations, indicating a continued soft landing for the US economy. The backdrop of loose liquidity remains unchanged. In terms of supply and demand, global copper concentrate supply-demand tightness persists, with ongoing mining supply disruptions. The expected surplus of refined copper is narrowing, but high copper prices are significantly suppressing downstream consumption, leading to unexpected inventory accumulation domestically. Structurally, the convergence of the COMEX-LME premium is influenced by tariff expectations, with ongoing trade flows of refined copper from non-US regions to the US. If the US-LME price spread expands again, structural shortages may continue to support copper prices [12][26].