光大期货：1月14日矿钢煤焦日报

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3158 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton or 0.22% from the previous trading day, with a reduction in open interest by 38,800 contracts [3][12] - Spot prices remained stable, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price at 2970 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price at 3250 CNY/ton, while national construction material transaction volume was 83,600 tons [3][12] - Recent bullish sentiment in the commodity market has positively impacted the undervalued rebar, with steel mills experiencing good order conditions and some securing winter storage resources early [3][12] - However, steel mill profitability has improved, leading to a continuous increase in rebar production, while demand is weakening as temperatures drop, resulting in a shift from inventory decline to increase [3][12] - The market is currently in a situation of valuation without driving forces, with short-term price expectations leaning towards narrow fluctuations [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 819.5 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 contracts and a slight reduction in open interest by 1,000 contracts [4][13] - Port prices for mainstream iron ore varieties showed slight declines, with 60.8% PB powder at 822 CNY, super special powder at 702 CNY, and 61.6% PB lump at 885 CNY [4][13] - On the supply side, shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while other countries saw slight increases, leading to a small overall decrease in global shipments [4][13] - Demand saw the addition of 11 blast furnaces undergoing maintenance and 11 blast furnaces resuming operations, with iron output increasing by 20,700 tons to 2.295 million tons [4][13] - Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories also increased, indicating a focus on replenishment demand in the short term [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1191 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton or 3.8%, with a decrease in open interest by 8,128 contracts [5][15] - In the spot market, prices for various coal types showed mixed movements, with some prices increasing slightly while others remained stable [5][15] - Supply-side issues due to underground problems in some coal mines have limited production, while others maintained normal production levels [5][15] - The recovery in iron output has led to increased demand for raw materials, with steel mills showing a low inventory of coal, thus expanding procurement needs [5][15] - Short-term expectations for coking coal prices are for continued fluctuations [5][15] Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1745 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton or 1.41%, with a reduction in open interest by 1,031 contracts [6][16] - Spot prices for coke at ports showed a decline, with the price for first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1490 CNY/ton [6][16] - On the supply side, coking coal prices have stabilized, and online auction conditions have improved, leading to a slight recovery in market sentiment [6][16] - Demand has increased as most previously shut down blast furnaces have resumed operations, with some steel mills releasing replenishment demand [6][16] - The steel market is currently in a low season, with expectations for continued fluctuations in coke prices [6][16] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese futures prices showed a slight decline, closing at 5916 CNY/ton, down 0.37%, with an increase in open interest by 3,675 contracts to 261,000 contracts [7][17] - Prices in various regions ranged from 5650 to 5820 CNY/ton, with a 50 CNY increase in Inner Mongolia [7][17] - The overall black metal sector showed weak performance, leading to a downward shift in silicon manganese prices [7][17] - Demand during the steel bidding period provided some support, with a total of 17,000 tons bid for January, an increase of 2,300 tons [7][17] - Inventory levels among 63 sample enterprises have decreased from high levels, but year-on-year increases remain significant [7][17] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron futures prices experienced a slight decline, closing at 5682 CNY/ton, down 0.11%, with a decrease in open interest by 3,885 contracts to 220,800 contracts [8][18] - Prices across regions remained stable, ranging from 5300 to 5350 CNY/ton [8][18] - The overall black metal sector showed weak performance, leading to a slight downward shift in silicon iron prices [8][18] - Production levels for silicon iron have remained stable, with weekly output at the lowest level for the same period in five years [8][18] - Inventory levels among 60 sample enterprises increased by 4,550 tons to 68,910 tons, with relatively high inventories in Inner Mongolia [8][18]