美国股市与现实脱节? “斩杀线”热议下，这位投资大佬押注预判2026年道琼斯指数下行20%

Core Viewpoint - John Rogers predicts a potential small-scale recession in the U.S. economy by the end of the year, with a significant decline in the stock market, particularly a 20% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, due to pressure on ordinary consumers from high living costs [1][2][4] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Rogers emphasizes that while wealthy consumers are thriving, ordinary Americans are struggling to manage high expenses, which could lead to a decrease in overall market demand and trigger an economic slowdown or recession [4][5] - The concept of "kill line" reflects the financial vulnerability of ordinary households, indicating that when income and assets fall below a certain level, they may face irreversible economic hardship [3][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Rogers' bearish outlook contrasts sharply with the generally optimistic sentiment among Wall Street strategists, who expect continued growth in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices through 2026 [5][6] - Despite the prevailing bullish sentiment, Rogers warns that the market may be underestimating the pressures faced by ordinary consumers and the potential negative impacts of long-term debt and interest rate paths on the economy [6] Group 3: Predictions from Other Economists - Diane Swonk from KPMG forecasts three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, predicting a significant drop in the Dow Jones to 43,000 points, while suggesting that the U.S. will avoid a recession [7] - Rogers remains optimistic about small-cap stocks, identifying companies like Smucker as potentially strong performers during economic downturns [7]