Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-14 01:31Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 103,540 yuan, while London copper slightly retreated to 13,142 USD [3][13] - The core CPI in the US for December 2025 was 2.6%, lower than expected, leading to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which limits expectations for interest rate cuts [4][14] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw an increase in copper warehouse receipts by 5,505 tons to 122,100 tons, while LME copper inventories rose by 4,325 tons to 141,500 tons [4][14] - Chile's copper exports to China in December 2025 were approximately 751,000 tons, showing a month-on-month improvement but still relatively low [4][14] - Market sentiment is currently warm, supported by strong fundamentals and pre-holiday stocking, with expectations for copper prices to maintain high-level fluctuations [4][14] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel prices continue to operate at high levels due to uncertainties regarding Indonesian policies [4][14] - The Indonesian government is currently calculating the 2026 RKAB quota, aiming to match supply and demand, which has somewhat alleviated market concerns [4][14] - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile until Indonesian policies are clarified, with the Shanghai nickel reference range set between 130,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [4][14] Group 3: Silicon and Aluminum - The price of polysilicon remains low due to a decline in market sentiment, with global production expected to drop to around 110,000 tons in January [5][15] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic downstream may temporarily benefit exports, but the impact on polysilicon demand is expected to be limited [5][15] - Aluminum prices are under pressure, with the 05 contract experiencing a significant drop and overall supply remaining excessive at around 96 million tons [5][15] - The 05 aluminum contract is expected to operate within a range of 2,500 to 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [5][15] Group 4: Zinc and Lead - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, with domestic TC prices stabilizing around 1,100 yuan, while the willingness to accept prices below 1,000 yuan is low [7][17] - The lead market is experiencing a slight recovery in supply due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans, although demand remains weak [8][18] - The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [8][18] Group 5: Precious Metals - The US December CPI data met expectations, leading to a slowdown in the upward momentum of precious metals, with only silver continuing to perform strongly [9][19] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly with rising tensions between the US and Iran, and ongoing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [9][19] - The market is awaiting further guidance on tariffs and geopolitical developments, with current precious metal prices at high levels and significant volatility expected [9][19]