光大期货：1月14日软商品日报

Sugar Industry - As of January 12, 2025/26 crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushed volume is 23.0955 million tons, a decrease of 5.7536 million tons or 19.94% compared to the same period last year [5] - The sugar content of sugarcane is 11.77%, an increase of 0.02% from last year's 11.75% [5] - The sugar production rate is 9.403%, down 0.148% from last year's 9.551% [5] - Sugar production is 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 583,600 tons or 21.18% compared to last year [5] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,310 to 5,380 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 10 CNY/ton; in Yunnan, prices range from 5,140 to 5,230 CNY/ton, also down by 10 CNY/ton [5] - Although Thailand's crushing progress is still low year-on-year, there is potential for recovery as production progresses [5] - Domestic market shows a balance between increased production pressure and pre-holiday stockpiling, with expectations of price fluctuations before the end of stockpiling [5] Cotton Industry - On Tuesday, ICE cotton rose by 0.03%, closing at 64.93 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract increased by 1.34%, closing at 14,760 CNY/ton [7] - The main contract's open interest increased by 19,206 contracts to 837,200 contracts [7] - The cotton 3128B spot price index is 15,610 CNY/ton, up 245 CNY/ton from the previous day [7] - Internationally, geopolitical disturbances are prevalent, and the US CPI data did not exceed expectations, causing the dollar index to rise above 99 [7] - Although US cotton export shipments remain low, the price difference between Zheng cotton and US cotton may provide some support for US cotton prices [7] - In the domestic market, after three consecutive declines, Zheng cotton saw an increase in open interest, indicating some buying interest from textile enterprises [7] - There are significant differences in raw material inventory levels among textile enterprises, with attention on pre-holiday replenishment actions [7] - Short-term outlook for Zheng cotton suggests potential fluctuations, while medium to long-term policies may provide upward price potential [7]