苯乙烯：苯乙烯短期偏强 但高估值弱预期下空间有限

Market Overview - On January 13, the styrene market in East China experienced slight fluctuations, with limited port-to-ship availability and expected inventory declines, leading to a constrained supply of market circulation goods. Downstream resistance to high prices is strong, and industry profits are compressed, maintaining a procurement strategy based on orders. Some production facilities have no restart plans, keeping overall industry profits acceptable. According to PEC statistics, the spot price closed at 7150-7210 yuan/ton for the February contract, with increases of 130-135 yuan [1] Profit Analysis - As of January 13, the profit for non-integrated styrene units is approximately 555 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Styrene supply: As of January 8, the weekly production of styrene is 355,700 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons, with an operating rate of 70.92%, up by 0.69% [1] - Styrene inventory: As of January 12, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu is 100,600 tons, a decrease of 31,700 tons from the previous period. The commodity inventory stands at 59,900 tons, down by 17,400 tons [1] Downstream Operations - As of January 8, the operating rate for EPS is 46.72%, up by 3.08%, while PS is at 58.9%, down by 1.5%, and ABS is at 69.8%, down by 0.1% [2] Market Outlook - Recently, styrene prices are supported by previous export shipments and new export transactions in January, with limited port inventory and a tight supply-demand balance. However, there is strong resistance from downstream sectors due to losses, leading to a decline in EPS operating rates and significant losses in ABS/PS, resulting in reduced operational focus and some factory shutdowns. There are expectations of inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, and limited cost support suggests that the upward potential for styrene prices is constrained. The strategy includes monitoring short-selling opportunities for EB03 and reducing EB processing fees at high levels [2]