Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-14 02:05Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that investors seeking refuge in gold may be making a significant mistake, despite the metal's price surge over the past year [2][13] Group 1: Gold Investment Outlook - Goldman Sachs' investment strategy team does not favor gold as a diversification tool in investment portfolios for 2026 [2][13] - The team highlights that gold has historically experienced deep and prolonged drawdowns, with a maximum drawdown of 70% [2][13] - Gold's volatility is noted to be higher than that of U.S. stocks, and it has only effectively hedged inflation in about half of the rolling 20-year periods [5][16] Group 2: Market Trends and Fund Flows - Investors have recently injected $950 million into the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, reversing a trend of outflows in 2026, with a net subscription of $118 million year-to-date [8][19] - The ETF saw a nearly 64% increase in 2025 and continues to rise, achieving its strongest annual performance since its launch in late 2004 [8][19] - As of the latest trading session, the gold ETF has risen over 6% this year, outperforming the broader U.S. stock market in 2026 [8][19] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold - Wells Fargo Investment Institute anticipates further increases in gold prices in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions and active purchases by global central banks [11][22] - The expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a stable dollar are projected to support gold's performance, although at a slower pace than in 2025 [11][22] Group 4: U.S. Stocks vs. Gold - Goldman Sachs' investment strategy team recommends an overweight position in U.S. stocks, suggesting that unless there is high certainty of an impending recession, it is difficult to underweight U.S. equities [23] - The team emphasizes that economic conditions will ultimately support earnings, with the S&P 500 index expected to follow the path of earnings [23]