光伏出口退税取消，硅料价格小幅上涨

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in production and demand in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, with specific emphasis on the challenges faced by domestic and international markets, including rising component prices and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][2]. Production - Photovoltaic module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October 2025, with domestic installation progress in December falling short of expectations and rising component prices causing reluctance among downstream buyers [2] - In January 2026, China's production of power, storage, and consumer batteries is projected to be 210 GWh, a decrease of 4.55% month-on-month, primarily driven by a significant decline in second-tier enterprises [2] Prices - As of January 7, 2026, the price of polysilicon dense material increased by 3.85% to 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers rose by 12.00% to 1.40 CNY/piece [3] - In November 2025, the average price of lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems ranged from 0.4452 to 0.6828 CNY/Wh, with an average of 0.5721 CNY/Wh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.4% [3] Demand - In November 2025, the export value of photovoltaic modules reached approximately 2.412 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [4] - Domestic photovoltaic installations in November 2025 totaled 22.02 GW, representing a month-on-month growth of 74.76% but a year-on-year decline of 11.92% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on energy storage-related companies, recommending specific stocks such as Sungrow Power Supply (300274), Narada Power Source (300068), Tongrun Equipment (002150), Huashengchang (002980), and Shouhang New Energy (301658) [5]