与特朗普硬刚，美联储守护独立性

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice has raised significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for a "sell America" trade to resurface in the market [1][8]. Group 1: Investigation Background - The investigation appears to center around the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's office building, but it is fundamentally rooted in the long-standing monetary policy disagreements between President Trump and Powell [2]. - On January 9, 2026, the DOJ issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, threatening criminal charges against Powell related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the renovation project, which saw its budget increase from approximately $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion [2]. - Powell has publicly stated that the criminal investigation is a "pretext" to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates, asserting that the government’s threats are due to the Fed's commitment to public interest rather than presidential wishes [2]. Group 2: Support for Powell - Powell received collective support from former Federal Reserve officials, including Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan, who condemned the DOJ's actions as an unprecedented attempt to undermine central bank independence [3]. - Yellen expressed concern about the chilling effect this investigation could have on Powell's potential successors and was surprised by the market's muted reaction to the news [3]. - Jonathan Kantner, a former DOJ official, warned that if political motives erode the threshold for conviction, it could undermine global confidence in the rule of law in the U.S. [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Response - In response to political pressure, Federal Reserve officials have chosen to assert their independence by signaling a clear stance on monetary policy [5]. - Powell emphasized that the core issue is whether the Federal Reserve can set interest rate policies based on evidence and economic conditions or if it will be swayed by political pressures [6]. - John Williams stated that current monetary policy is neutral regarding employment and inflation targets, indicating no need for interest rate cuts in the short term [7]. Group 4: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could trigger a threefold crisis: decreased investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, rising long-term borrowing costs, and accelerated global de-dollarization [8]. - Gary Tan from Allspring Global Investments noted that any developments questioning the Fed's independence would increase uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy, potentially leading to a trend of reducing dollar holdings and increasing interest in traditional safe-haven assets like gold [8]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.2% on January 12, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and gold prices reached a historic high, indicating market reactions to the investigation [8].