华泰期货：USDA报告偏多，棉价震荡反弹

Market Overview - The cotton futures contract 2605 closed at 14,760 CNY/ton, an increase of 135 CNY/ton or 0.92% from the previous day [2][7] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,500 CNY/ton, down by 90 CNY/ton, while the national average price was 15,783 CNY/ton, a decrease of 74 CNY/ton [2][7] Supply and Demand Insights - According to the USDA's January cotton supply and demand forecast, the U.S. cotton planting area for 2025/26 is projected at 56.345 million acres, a decrease of 82,000 acres [2][7] - The abandonment rate is expected to drop to 15.9%, a reduction of 4.8 percentage points, leading to an increase in harvested area to 47.376 million acres, up by 2.647 million acres [2][7] - The yield is expected to be 64 kg/acre, down by 5.5 kg/acre, with total production forecasted at 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons [2][7] - Consumption is projected at 348,000 tons, showing a decrease of 5.9%, while exports are expected to remain stable at 2.656 million tons [2][7] - Ending stocks are anticipated to decrease by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2][7] Market Analysis - The Zheng cotton price experienced a rebound amid significant supply pressure from the new cotton harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, while global textile consumption remains weak [8] - The slow progress in U.S. cotton export contracts suggests continued pressure on prices in the short term, although the long-term outlook indicates that U.S. cotton is undervalued with limited downside potential [8] - Domestic cotton production is expected to continue to increase significantly, with commercial inventories rising seasonally [8] - Despite active stocking by yarn factories and traders before the holiday, downstream orders have declined, leading to slower sales of finished products and increased inventory, particularly in the grey fabric sector [8] Strategic Outlook - The current strategy is neutral, with short-term pressures from downstream transmission and price differentials, necessitating caution regarding potential high-level corrections [9] - The medium to long-term upward potential will depend on the actual implementation of target price policies and acreage reduction policies [9]