华泰期货：退税调整影响尚在，昨日碳酸锂价格触及涨停

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price fluctuations and regulatory changes, impacting both short-term and long-term price trends. Group 1: Market Analysis - On January 13, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract opened at 168,000 CNY/ton and closed at 166,980 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 7.44% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 608,177 lots, with an open interest of 460,281 lots, compared to 506,702 lots the previous day [2][10]. - The current basis is -9,420 CNY/ton, indicating a difference between the average spot price and futures [2][10]. - The spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate are quoted between 155,000 and 164,000 CNY/ton, and for industrial-grade lithium carbonate between 152,000 and 160,000 CNY/ton, both increasing by 7,500 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [3][11]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The exchange has implemented new regulations to limit speculative trading, including a cap on daily opening positions for certain contracts to 400 lots, effective January 15, 2026 [3][11]. - Transaction fees for specific lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 0.032% of the transaction amount starting January 15, 2026 [3][11]. Group 3: Inventory and Consumption - Current spot inventory stands at 109,942 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 337 tons. Smelter inventory is at 18,382 tons (+715 tons), while downstream inventory is at 36,540 tons (-2,458 tons) [4][12]. - The inventory trend indicates a potential turning point, necessitating close monitoring of actual downstream consumption [4][12]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current price is heavily influenced by news and exhibits signs of excessive speculation. The pace of inventory depletion is slowing, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets, suggesting a need for caution regarding potential price corrections [5][13]. - Factors influencing the market include sustained demand from the consumption side, unexpected disturbances in the mining sector, and changes in macroeconomic sentiment and position adjustments [8][15].