华泰期货：避险溢价加持 贵金属延续强势
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-14 02:33

Geopolitical Analysis - U.S. President Trump has canceled all talks with Iranian officials and the State Department has urged U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately [2] - Military options regarding Iran have been presented to President Trump, which are described as "broad" and "far beyond traditional airstrikes" [2] Inflation Data - The U.S. CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, both remaining unchanged from previous values [2] - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown may reduce the predictive value of this data for future Federal Reserve policy [2] - Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy in January 2026 [2] Futures Market Overview - On January 13, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1026.86 CNY/gram and closed at 1027.18 CNY/gram, a change of 0.09% from the previous day [3] - The main silver futures contract opened at 20900.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 21004.00 CNY/kilogram, a change of 0.28% from the previous day [3] Bond Market Monitoring - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.175%, unchanged from the previous day, with a 10-year and 2-year yield spread of 0.647%, also unchanged [5] Trading Volume and Positions - On January 13, 2026, the total trading volume for gold was 370,792 contracts, a decrease of 12.15% from the previous day [18] - The total trading volume for silver was 2,382,636 contracts, a decrease of 3.72% from the previous day [18] ETF Holdings - As of the last report, gold ETF holdings remained at 1,070.80 tons, unchanged from the previous day, while silver ETF holdings increased by 40 tons to 16,348 tons [19] Price Differentials - On January 13, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -6.49 CNY/gram, and for silver, it was -546.66 CNY/kilogram [20] - The gold-silver ratio for the main contracts was approximately 48.90, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous day [20] Market Strategy - The market sentiment is cautiously bullish for gold, with expectations of a price range between 1010 CNY/gram and 1050 CNY/gram for the Au2602 contract [22] - Silver is also expected to maintain a cautiously bullish stance, with a price range between 21,000 CNY/kilogram and 23,000 CNY/kilogram for the Ag2604 contract [23]