PTA产业链深陷产能困局

Group 1 - The PTA industry chain is expected to face significant capacity pressure by 2026, with upstream supply tightening likely to keep paraxylene (PX) prices strong, while downstream PTA faces thin profits and overcapacity, making recovery unlikely in the short term [1] - In East Asia, PTA gross margins have dropped to 180-200 RMB/ton by mid-December 2025, compared to average margins of 280 RMB/ton in 2024 and 286 RMB/ton in 2023, compounded by weak regional consumption and ongoing trade negotiations with the US and EU [1] - Some end producers are passively accumulating inventory due to stalled orders, indicating a challenging market environment for PTA in East Asia [1] Group 2 - India is emerging as a key market, with domestic PTA capacity expansion expected to increase PX demand steadily by 2026, aided by the cancellation of previous quality control regulations that had created a dual-track market [2] - The GAIL company's 1.2 million tons/year PTA facility is anticipated to start production in March, providing local polyester yarn and PET resin producers with ample and affordable raw materials, potentially reducing import demand [2] - The supply-demand dynamics for PX are expected to tighten in 2026, as the rapid growth of PTA capacity in East Asia has outpaced that of PX, leading to a long-awaited turning point in the market [2] Group 3 - PTA and PX exporters are closely monitoring global tariff dynamics, as policy changes in 2025 significantly impacted global trade flows, with a notable 37% year-on-year decrease in US PX imports from January to September 2025, and a nearly 75% drop in PTA imports from Korea [3] - A potential new tariff agreement between the US and South Korea in 2026 could gradually restore related trade flows, which would also apply to other Asian countries [3] - The EU is set to rule on temporary anti-dumping duties in April 2026, with final measures expected in October, highlighting the importance of tariff impacts on the European market [3]