华泰期货：多因素推动油价连续反弹，但预计高度有限

Core Viewpoint - Recent oil prices have shown a rebound, but the extent is expected to be limited due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain stability concerns [8]. Market News and Key Data - Light crude oil futures for February delivery rose by $1.65, closing at $61.15 per barrel, an increase of 2.77%. Brent crude for March delivery increased by $1.60, closing at $65.47 per barrel, a rise of 2.51%. The main SC crude oil contract rose by 2.90%, closing at 450 yuan per barrel [2][7]. - Venezuela's oil production significantly dropped from 1.16 million barrels per day to approximately 880,000 barrels per day as of January 13. The state-owned oil company PDVSA has ordered the restart of oil wells to recover production [2][7]. - Gulf Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar, have been lobbying the Trump administration against military action against Iran, warning that such actions could disrupt the oil market and harm the U.S. economy [2][7]. - The U.S. government has applied for seizure orders to confiscate dozens of oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade. Recently, five vessels were seized in international waters, either transporting Venezuelan oil or previously involved in such transport [2][3][7]. Investment Logic - The recent rebound in oil prices is driven by escalating tensions in Iran, ongoing low CPC crude oil exports, and significant buying from Bloomberg commodity index fund rebalancing. However, the influence of commodity index funds is expected to dissipate, and the immediate threat from Iran appears to be under control, with no actual impact on supply chains [8]. Strategy - Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, while a bearish position is suggested for the medium term [9].