光大证券：预计2026年理财规模增3万亿 权益配置或为股市带来超千亿资金

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities predicts that the total wealth management scale in the market will grow by approximately 3.5 trillion yuan to 33-34 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by multiple factors including deposit "disintermediation," valuation adjustments, and the expansion of products with rights [1] Wealth Management Scale - Deposit "disintermediation" remains a crucial support factor, but the growth pace may experience fluctuations; a neutral estimate suggests an increase of around 3 trillion yuan [2] - The maturity of deposits over 2 years for listed banks in 2026 is estimated to be about 41 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 9 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] Product Layout - The focus is on building a stable low-volatility base while actively expanding products with rights; it is estimated that wealth management could bring in 150-300 billion yuan to the stock market in 2026 [3] - The growth of "fixed income+" wealth management products is projected to be 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with a nearly 16% increase in the existing scale by year-end compared to the beginning of the year [3] Asset Allocation - There is a rigid allocation to deposit-type assets, with a shift towards multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches to seek returns; potential marginal changes may lead to a shift in wealth management preferences from deposits to bond-type assets [4] - The report outlines that deposits and specific private bonds will maintain a certain allocation strength, while the demand for short-term bond allocations is expected to remain strong [4] Wealth Management Operations - Performance benchmarks are expected to face downward pressure, with potential liquidity concerns; the "true net value" operation model may lead to weaker customer experience in wealth management returns in 2026 [5] - Factors such as increased liquidity reserves and enhanced investor tolerance are expected to mitigate redemption pressures [5] Competitive Landscape - The market share of wealth management companies is expected to continue rising, with channel factors being a significant variable affecting the competitive landscape [6] - Future changes in the competitive landscape may include further penetration of distribution channels into county-level regions, enhancing customer reach [6]