黄金涨7%、白银涨23%，1月还未过半，贵金属牛市又开始“刷屏”？

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and other precious metals have surged significantly, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets and robust central bank purchases, continuing the bullish trend from 2025 into 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of early 2026, spot gold has risen nearly 7% to over $4,600, while spot silver has surged 23%, approaching $90 [1]. - Platinum has also seen a 15% increase this year, nearing historical peaks [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - The current price increases are built on remarkable annual gains from the previous year, with gold, platinum, and silver recording increases of 65%, 125%, and 145% respectively [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, continue to increase their gold reserves, with China adding 860,000 ounces in 2025, bringing total reserves to 74.15 million ounces [6]. - The value of China's gold reserves rose from approximately $19.134 billion to about $34 billion due to last year's price increases [6]. - Other central banks, including those in Brazil, Finland, and Turkey, have also contributed to a rise in official gold purchases, pushing the total above long-term averages [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and State Street Bank note that high gold prices have not deterred central banks from increasing their gold holdings, indicating a persistent shift in reserve management from U.S. Treasuries to gold [9]. - The lower price threshold for gold is estimated at $4,000 per ounce, with the potential for prices to exceed $5,000 [9]. - As of October last year, gold accounted for 25.9% of global foreign exchange reserves, surpassing the proportion of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue in the near term amid a volatile global environment [10].