日元创18个月新低 政治预期主导贬值

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar, driven by diverging monetary policies and political expectations, leading to a significant depreciation trend in the currency [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - As of January 13, 2026, the USD/JPY exchange rate reached a new 18-month low of 158.90, reflecting a year-to-date depreciation of over 1.2% [1]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is a key driver of the exchange rate, with the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to 0.75% in December 2025, while the Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle [2]. Group 2: Political and Economic Influences - Political developments in Japan, particularly Prime Minister Kishi's consideration of dissolving the House of Representatives, have heightened expectations for aggressive fiscal policies and a low-interest-rate environment, further pressuring the yen [3]. - Concerns over fiscal sustainability have intensified, with Japan's government debt exceeding 260% of GDP, leading to increased selling pressure on the yen as long-term interest rates rise [3]. Group 3: Economic Fundamentals and Geopolitical Risks - Japan's economic fundamentals show mixed signals, with inflation above the Bank of Japan's target and weakening growth momentum, limiting support for the yen [4]. - Global geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have created volatility in the currency market, affecting the yen's performance as a safe-haven asset [4].