Today’s Midday USDA Data Dump Is the Key Catalyst to Watch in Grain Markets

Group 1: Market Overview - Last week saw positive movement for corn and soybean futures, with prices stabilizing after gains earlier in the week [1] - Corn futures are currently trading within a sideways range, while soybeans have rebounded from early January lows [1] Group 2: USDA Supply and Demand Report - The upcoming USDA supply and demand report is expected to influence grain market trading [3] - Analysts predict U.S. corn production for 2025 to be 16.552 billion bushels, down from 16.752 billion in the previous report, with an average yield of 184.00 bushels per acre [3] - U.S. quarterly corn stocks as of December 1 are estimated at 12.962 billion bushels, an increase from 12.075 billion bushels a year prior [3] Group 3: Corn Production and Stocks - Ending stocks for U.S. corn in the 2025-26 marketing year are projected at 1.972 billion bushels, a decrease from 2.029 billion in the December report [4] - The Argentine corn crop for 2025-26 is estimated at 53.63 million metric tons, while Brazil's is projected at 132.46 million metric tons [4] - Global ending stocks for corn are expected to be 279.62 million metric tons, slightly up from 279.15 million metric tons in the previous report [4] Group 4: Soybean Production and Stocks - U.S. soybean production for 2025 is expected to be 4.229 billion bushels, down from 4.253 billion in the November report, with an average yield of 52.7 bushels per acre [5] - U.S. quarterly soybean stocks as of December 1 are estimated at 3.25 billion bushels, an increase from 3.10 billion bushels a year earlier [5] - Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans in the 2025-26 marketing year are projected at 292 million bushels, slightly up from 290 million in the December report [5] Group 5: Wheat Production and Stocks - U.S. wheat quarterly stocks as of December 1 are estimated at 1.636 billion bushels, an increase from 1.573 billion bushels a year prior [6] - Ending stocks for U.S. wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year are projected at 896 million bushels, down from 901 million in the December report [6] - Global ending stocks for wheat are expected to be 275.95 million metric tons, up from 274.87 million metric tons in the previous report [6]