长江有色:新能源需求爆发与油价上涨驱动 14日铝价或上涨

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the aluminum market is influenced by multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising oil prices, which are expected to drive aluminum prices higher [1][2] - The latest closing price for London aluminum is reported at $3196 per ton, with a slight increase of $5, or 0.16%, while the Shanghai aluminum futures market shows a closing price of 24780 yuan per ton, up 170 yuan, or 0.69% [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is constrained, making it difficult to increase output, while the demand from the new energy sector is expected to boost aluminum demand significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows that the U.S. December CPI data indicates a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than analyst expectations, reinforcing market bets on interest rate cuts [2] - The domestic aluminum supply is primarily from aluminum water, with a low proportion of deliverable aluminum ingots, which supports aluminum prices [2] - Despite weak seasonal demand leading to a decrease in orders and operating rates for aluminum processing enterprises, the rapid growth in new energy demand, particularly from electric vehicles and data centers, is reshaping global metal demand [2][3]