Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-14 03:05Core Viewpoint - Tin has been a crucial material throughout human history, from the Bronze Age to modern technology, and is now essential in various industries, including electronics, food packaging, and green energy [1] Macro and Sentiment - External factors such as lower-than-expected U.S. core CPI have strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting overall metal valuations; the approval of NVIDIA's sales of H200 chips to China has boosted demand expectations in the AI chip sector [2] - Domestic monetary policy remains loose, and policies like "trade-in" for consumer goods indirectly stimulate downstream solder demand for tin [3] Geopolitical and Supply Factors - The escalation of conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a key source of tin imports for China, has raised concerns about supply stability, contributing to a significant price increase; ongoing supply tightness and low global visible inventories further exacerbate the situation [4] Demand and Structure - Emerging sectors such as AI and photovoltaics are driving significant demand; NVIDIA's high-end chip delivery expectations are increasing demand for high-grade solder, while the expansion of photovoltaic production capacity is raising solder consumption [5] Industry Chain and Leaders - Profit margins are shifting towards upstream resources due to tight supply, putting pressure on smelting companies; industry leader Yunnan Tin Company has seen a 35.99% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, closely tied to tin prices and deepening supply chain cooperation with leading AI and new energy firms [6] Market Outlook - The strong price trend for tin is expected to continue in the short term, with London tin prices targeting $50,000 per ton; domestic prices may also break through 410,000 yuan, supported by liquidity expectations, historically low inventories, and structural growth in emerging demands [7] - Potential risks include the stabilization of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo or unexpected recovery in Myanmar's supply, which could lead to temporary price corrections, but the long-term supply-demand gap is likely to support a systemic price increase [8]