电解铝：涨在贵金属之后---宏观叙事下的铝市新高

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals market is experiencing a significant surge at the beginning of 2026, with aluminum prices rising sharply, driven by macroeconomic sentiment despite weak fundamentals [3][16]. Price Review - The current rally began in late December 2025, with aluminum prices reaching 24,150 yuan/ton by January 7, 2026, marking a 1,700 yuan/ton increase and a 7.57% rise, the highest since October 20, 2021 [4][17]. Macroeconomic Narrative - Precious metals and copper have reached historical highs, while aluminum's price increase has been more restrained due to its stronger commodity attributes, requiring more emotional momentum for upward movement [6][19]. - The decline of the US dollar has amplified the safe-haven and anti-inflation properties of precious metals, with copper leading the charge in breaking free from commodity constraints [19]. Cyclical Dynamics - The upcoming investment cycle, driven by large-scale equipment upgrades starting in 2024, will support demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly aluminum, as its primary demand scenarios shift towards new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI computing [9][21]. - The current economic cycle is characterized by a transition from traditional industries to new productivity drivers, providing sustainable demand momentum for aluminum and copper [21]. Geopolitical Disturbances - The changing situation in South America signals a competition for key mineral resources, with geopolitical events increasing in frequency and scope since the Eastern European conflict began in 2022 [10][22]. - The US's strategic interests in South American resources, particularly rare earths, are influencing the dynamics of non-ferrous metal prices [22]. Strategic Direction - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes enhancing the global competitiveness of the mining and metallurgy industries, indicating a shift towards value enhancement and industrial restructuring in the non-ferrous metals sector [11][22]. - The aluminum industry is transitioning from reliance on overseas resources to actively utilizing them, with leading companies extending their operations downstream [12][22]. Market Outlook - The macroeconomic narrative remains strong, with favorable liquidity conditions expected to support further increases in aluminum prices, although a potential market correction is anticipated in late January to early February 2026 [13][23]. - Despite expected price pressures from rising inventories and production cuts, it is projected that aluminum prices will not fall below 22,000 yuan/ton, with the 2026 price range significantly higher than in 2025 [23].