花生：春节时间延后 一季度价格或窄幅走低

Core Viewpoint - The overall supply of new peanuts for the 2025 production season is expected to be loose, with price differences emerging due to varying quality across regions. The demand from oil mills is significant, while downstream consumption remains limited, leading to a potential weak price trend after a brief increase in the first quarter [3][16]. Price Trends - In 2025, the price of old peanuts showed a low-level fluctuation before rising, with significant price increases starting in mid-May due to consumption and market replenishment ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival. However, the lack of sustained demand from downstream markets has led to a decline in prices as inventory turnover slows [3][16]. - New peanuts began to be listed in August, with prices initially high but declining due to delayed harvests and quality issues in the Henan region. By December 31, 2025, the average price for peanuts in the Zhu Ma Dian region was 8238 yuan/ton, down 7.04% year-on-year [4][17]. Regional Supply and Quality Disparities - The quality of new peanuts varied significantly between regions, with the Fuxin area producing high-quality peanuts while the Zhu Ma Dian area faced quality issues, leading to a price gap of up to 2000 yuan/ton, the largest in five years [6][19]. - The speed of inventory depletion varied by region, with the Northeast showing improved outflow rates compared to Henan, where heavy rains delayed harvests. By the end of December, the estimated remaining inventory in Henan was about 61.48%, an increase of 3.94 percentage points year-on-year [8][21]. Oil Peanut Consumption - As of December, major oil mills began purchasing raw materials, leading to an increase in oil consumption. The average purchase price for oil peanuts was 7627 yuan/ton, down 7.02% year-on-year, with a total unloading of approximately 89.52 million tons, a decrease of 16.17% [10][23]. Wholesale Market Dynamics - The wholesale market saw a total arrival of about 149,900 tons of new peanuts from September to December, a decrease of 10.79% year-on-year, while the outflow increased by 146.52% compared to last year's low point. However, the overall market remains influenced by consumption conditions, with limited purchasing activity expected post-holiday [12][25]. Future Price Expectations - It is anticipated that there will be a wave of sales from traders before the Spring Festival, but with ample inventory, the upward momentum for downstream demand may be insufficient. Prices are expected to experience a narrow increase followed by a slight decline in the first quarter, with projected price ranges for Zhu Ma Dian and Liaoning regions set at 6700-7400 yuan/ton and 8800-9400 yuan/ton, respectively [13][26].