河北粉壳蛋价迎强势反弹 节前价格走势先扬后抑

Core Viewpoint - In early January, the price of shell eggs in Hebei ended a two-month low consolidation phase and began a strong rebound due to favorable supply and demand conditions. While prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, there is still potential for an increase before the Spring Festival, although risks of price decline may rise later due to inventory release and weakened export demand [3][10]. Price Trends - From January 1 to January 11, the average price of Hebei shell eggs rose from 121 yuan per box to 138 yuan per box, an increase of 17 yuan per box, representing a significant rise of 14.05%. On January 12, the price paused its upward trend and stabilized [3][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of eggs has slightly decreased as the number of laying hens has declined, with the inventory of laying hens in Hebei at approximately 111 million as of December 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.54%. This reduction in supply, combined with optimistic market expectations for the Spring Festival and favorable storage conditions due to low temperatures, has led to increased purchasing activity from downstream markets and food manufacturers, driving egg prices higher [5][12]. Future Price Expectations - Despite the rapid increase in egg prices, there is cautious sentiment among downstream buyers regarding high-priced goods. However, demand before the Spring Festival remains strong, suggesting that prices may continue to rise, with potential peaks expected between 140 to 150 yuan per box in mid-January. It is important to note that once prices reach anticipated highs, accumulated inventory from producers and traders may be released, potentially increasing market supply [7][14]. Seasonal Factors - As schools enter winter break in late January and migrant workers return home, external demand is expected to weaken, which could contribute to a decline in egg prices due to multiple adverse factors [14].