广发证券：电量高增蓄能高位 关注水电投产与证券化

Group 1 - The overall water inflow in the Yangtze and Pearl River basins is favorable for Q4 and the entire year, with electricity generation expected to increase significantly [1][2] - The Yangtze River's electricity generation is projected to reach 3,071.94 billion kWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.82%, with Q4 generation at 720.68 billion kWh, up 19.9% year-on-year [2] - The Pearl River basin has also seen a strong performance, with Guiguan Power's Q4 hydropower generation increasing by 79.1% year-on-year, contributing to an annual total of 415.68 billion kWh, a record high [2] Group 2 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River's water inflow is below average, leading to reduced electricity generation, with projected generation declines of 40.6%, 35.2%, and 7.2% for the months of October to December [2] - The Dadu River is also expected to see a decrease in generation, with a projected annual output of 448.81 billion kWh, down 7.5% year-on-year [2] - Overall, while the Yangtze and Pearl River basins show strong performance, the Yarlung Tsangpo and Dadu Rivers are lagging behind [2] Group 3 - The end-of-year energy storage levels are high, ensuring electricity generation during the dry season, with the Longtan Power Station achieving full capacity for the first time since 2021 [3] - The Yangtze River's energy storage is also robust, with a total of 345.28 billion kWh stored, an increase of 33.40 billion kWh year-on-year [3] - The impact of drought conditions on energy generation has been largely mitigated [3] Group 4 - The hydropower sector is entering a new peak of production, with several new projects coming online, including those from Guiguan Power, which is set to acquire assets from Datang Group [4] - The long-term interest rates remain low, which is expected to reduce funding costs and enhance valuations for companies like Yangtze Power, which has a current dividend yield of approximately 3.6% [4] - The environment of declining long-term interest rates is anticipated to support valuation increases in the sector [4] Group 5 - Companies with high electricity generation growth and significant asset injections, such as Guiguan Power and Yangtze Power, are recommended for investment [5] - Other companies to watch include Guodian Power, which has recently seen a rebound, and those with strong dividend commitments [5]