COMMUNE赴港IPO：一二线城市同店销售额负增长 激进扩张能否撑起80亿估值？

Core Viewpoint - COMMUNE, a mid-to-high-end restaurant and bar chain, is set to challenge Helen's, the first stock of small taverns, as it files for an IPO in Hong Kong, with significant revenue growth and a different market positioning [1][2]. Company Overview - COMMUNE's parent company, Extreme Thinking Co., has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a projected revenue of 845 million yuan and 1.074 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and net profits of 50.52 million yuan and 53.98 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.1% and 6.8% [1]. - As of the first nine months of 2025, COMMUNE's 112 directly operated stores generated approximately 872 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with net profit rising significantly by 46.9% to 66.70 million yuan [1]. Market Positioning - Unlike Helen's, which focuses on affordable taverns, COMMUNE targets the mid-to-high-end market with larger store formats ranging from 400 to 700 square meters, located in prime urban areas [2]. - COMMUNE's store distribution is concentrated in first and second-tier cities, with a significant increase in store numbers from 18 to 28 in first-tier cities and from 61 to 72 in second-tier cities between 2023 and 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - The average daily bill for COMMUNE's members decreased from 182.2 yuan to 167.9 yuan in 2023-2024 but rebounded to 169.9 yuan in the first nine months of 2025, with a notable 12.9% increase in first-tier cities [4]. - In contrast, Helen's average customer spending dropped from 112.9 yuan in Q1 2021 to 82 yuan and 71 yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively, indicating a significant decline [5]. Business Model Comparison - COMMUNE operates on a direct management model, while Helen's has shifted towards franchising, which has led to operational challenges and declining same-store sales [5][7]. - Both companies have similar cost structures, with core expenses related to materials, labor, and depreciation accounting for 65%-70% of total costs [5]. Expansion Plans - Despite facing challenges, COMMUNE plans to aggressively expand, aiming to open 150-190 new stores from 2026 to 2029, which is 1.34 to 1.70 times the total number of stores opened in the past decade [7]. Valuation and Investment - COMMUNE's valuation has seen a dramatic increase, rising nearly 300% in three months, with a post-investment valuation reaching approximately 11.27 billion USD, indicating strong investor interest despite operational challenges [10][11]. - The competitive landscape in the tavern industry is intensifying, with numerous brands and varying levels of market penetration, raising questions about COMMUNE's ability to maintain its position in first and second-tier cities [11].